The Pendulum Swings

Google has just gotten clobbered in the market these past few months — from a high of 747 in November, the stock is down into the mid 400’s.  Well, big news after the market closed today.  Profits up over 30%.  See one article here.  The stock is trading after hours today up 75 points, near 525.  It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

It occurs to me that some of this is obvious.  The dot com boom in 2000 — everyone knew that bust was coming, it was just too “irrationally exuberant.”  A few years ago interest rates were incredibly low; back then we refinanced everything we owned.  We knew those rates wouldn’t last, and it didn’t.  And when housing prices soared, the bubble guys sure called what was coming. 

So now oil’s at 110/barrel…can that last?  Can the bank stocks stay as low as they are now?  It seems like we’re thick headed during both good and bad times and can’t see it coming.  When a situation has deviated so far off the norm…well, swinging back the other way seems nearly always to be a when, not if, question.


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